A city proposes to build a bike lane to reduce car traffic. Which assumption is necessary for the conclusion to hold?

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Multiple Choice

A city proposes to build a bike lane to reduce car traffic. Which assumption is necessary for the conclusion to hold?

The essential idea here is that a policy’s claimed effect hinges on how people actually behave after it’s put in place. For the bike lane to reduce car traffic, enough cyclists must choose to use the lane, shifting trips away from cars. If the lane doesn’t attract a sufficient number of riders, car trips won’t drop enough to matter, so the conclusion wouldn’t follow. The location of the lane, whether the city has funds to maintain it, or whether it costs taxpayers are about feasibility or cost, not about whether the effect on traffic could happen if people do ride bikes more. In short, the necessary assumption is that the lane will be used by enough people to replace a meaningful portion of car trips.

The essential idea here is that a policy’s claimed effect hinges on how people actually behave after it’s put in place. For the bike lane to reduce car traffic, enough cyclists must choose to use the lane, shifting trips away from cars. If the lane doesn’t attract a sufficient number of riders, car trips won’t drop enough to matter, so the conclusion wouldn’t follow. The location of the lane, whether the city has funds to maintain it, or whether it costs taxpayers are about feasibility or cost, not about whether the effect on traffic could happen if people do ride bikes more. In short, the necessary assumption is that the lane will be used by enough people to replace a meaningful portion of car trips.

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